← CoreTCG Alchemical Revolution Store Championship

Fire Crux MageTier 1

at CoreTCG Alchemical Revolution Store Championship

decks
5 (41.7% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
12 6-5-1
overall winrate
54.2%
ELO-adjusted winrate
48.0% avg ELO -0.8 per match
expected value
55.8% share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
52.6% share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1367 · median 1344 · range 1323–1423 (5 pilots with an ELO rating)
1021 Q1 1174 Q3 1409 1736
20% of pilots are in the field's top quartile, 0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups

Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.

Opponent Their share Matches W-L-D Raw WR Shrunk WR Adj WR ELO Δ/match
Wind Allies 33.3% 6 4-1-1 75.0% 65.0% 60.9% +5.8
Fire Arcane 8.3% 2 0-2-0 0.0% 33.3% 36.4% -13.0
Water Allies 8.3% 3 2-1-0 66.7% 57.1% 49.3% -0.5
Water Umbra Ranger 8.3% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 39.0% -17.5
Decklists · 5 from this event

The 5 public Fire Crux Mage decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.

Mirror Analysis

In 1 mirror match (2 draws excluded), here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.

No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.

Show all 25 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 25 held back from the grid above)
Card Edge In winner In loser Same Direction
Resolute Stand -1.00 0 1 0
Tithe Proclamation -1.00 0 1 0
Water Resonance Bauble +1.00 1 0 0
Fire Resonance Bauble +1.00 1 0 0
Viridian Protective Trinket +1.00 1 0 0
Purge in Flames -1.00 0 1 0
Exorcise Curses -1.00 0 1 0
Devastating Blow -1.00 0 1 0
Blanche, Sheltering Saint -1.00 0 1 0
Flame Sweep +1.00 1 0 0
Vanish from Sight -1.00 0 1 0
Wind Resonance Bauble +1.00 1 0 0
Cremation Ritual -1.00 0 1 0
Spark Alight -1.00 0 1 0
Hasty Messenger -1.00 0 1 0
Chalice of Blood +1.00 1 0 0
Morgan, Soul Guide +1.00 1 0 0
Safeguard Amulet -1.00 0 1 0
Quicksilver Grail -1.00 0 1 0
Rending Flames +1.00 1 0 0
Escape the Wreckage +1.00 1 0 0
Chilling Touch -1.00 0 1 0
Academy Guide +1.00 1 0 0
Tempered Steel +1.00 1 0 0
Library Witch +1.00 1 0 0

JSON: /api/events/2546/archetypes/Fire Crux Mage